Tensions between South Africa and the United States are escalating, with the dispute primarily involving both governments.
However, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has also directed criticism toward Elon Musk, adding a personal dimension to the ongoing friction.
According to airinsight.com, This fracas is odd – South Africa is nowhere near as important as Canada, Mexico, or Ukraine for US foreign interests.
To borrow a phrase coined by Jon Ostrower, what’s the aviation angle? Because there’s always an aviation angle.
Market Size
The following table provides helpful context of the total US air travel market.
Africa’s air traffic to and from the United States accounts for 1% of the US market. The next table shows the size of South Africa within the African market.
Over the past three years, the South African air passenger market has accounted for ~20% of the total African market. This is a tiny market with barely an aviation angle.
Economic Impact
The economic impact of net flows from the United States to South Africa is based on traffic volume. In 2024, 2.2 US citizens traveled to South Africa for every South African entering the United States. South Africa is growing in popularity among Americans and globally.
The following table lists traffic from the United States to the key South African gateway airports. The data for the following two tables covers October 2024, whereas the data above covers the entire year.
Additional context by splitting this traffic by airline provides key insights.
The growing traffic volume from the United States uses American carriers. South Africa’s economic benefits start when these travelers land and start spending. The South African government knows the vital impact international travel delivers. The United States has extensive data on its trade with South Africa.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis’s most recent data is for 2023. The data shows that South Africa’s travel services impact on the US was valued at $0.9 billion, while the US travel impact on South Africa was $1 billion. In 2023, South Africa represented 0.5% of the economic impact of US travel.
In 2023, 0.2% of traveling Americans visited South Africa, representing 0.5% of America’s international tourist spending. South Africa won big. The Miami Herald noted that Americans were the fastest-growing tourism market for South Africa. The reverse economic impact was and remains immeasurably smaller.
Statista projects that the United States could generate the highest revenue in the South African tourism market in 2025.
Summary
The United States is an important and growing source of economic impact. South Africa’s national unemployment rate of over 32% sends a nasty signal, and even the World Bank is concerned about South Africa’s slow growth.
The aviation angle revolves around how American travelers create jobs and create a positive economic impact.
