The travel industry is showing strong resilience despite tough global conditions, with 2026 set to break arrival and spending records. That’s the optimistic message from the WTM Global Travel Report 2026, unveiled today by WTM London, part of the RX Global portfolio, in conjunction with Tourism Economics.
International overnight arrivals are projected to reach 1.57bn in 2026, up 2% on 2025 and a new record, while spending by these visitors will end the year up 6% to US$1.8 trillion. Total visitor nights (domestic and international) should hit 24.2bn, while the spend across both sectors reaches US$7.8tn, up 9% on 2025.
However, while the industry now recovers from crises in roughly half the time it took two decades ago, growth has been slower this year; just 2% compared to 6% in 2025 says Tourism Economics, an Oxford Economics company. The Iran conflict, jet fuel prices and living costs have weighed on demand with much of the relative buoyancy attributed to domestic and short-haul travel, though a strong bounce back is expected.
Short-haul versus long-haul
In the Middle East, overnight arrivals were 40% down this year, but they are predicted to swiftly recover by a projected 43% in 2027 if there is an end to the Iran conflict.
More widely, the war has dented long-haul demand due to safety concerns, higher fares resulting from soaring jet fuel costs, and loss of capacity (Gulf hubs having accounted for 15% of global transit in 2025).
While inter-regional trips globally reduced by 3%, short-haul travel (particularly strong within Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa) rose by the same percentage. Diverted demand is credited for significant arrivals increases this year in Africa (8%) Oceania (8%) and Europe (5%).
If the Iran hostilities cease, Tourism Economics believes Asia and Oceania could see strong arrivals growth of 11% next year. Asia has been affected by not only the long-haul slump but also relatively weak outbound demand from China.
Despite the FIFA World Cup, international arrivals to North America are forecast to end 2026 just 2% up, remaining 6% below 2019 levels, with rising costs and negative traveller sentiment towards the United States reducing demand. The forthcoming LA 2028 Olympics is an expected bright spot, however. Latin America also posted 2% growth this year but is projected to see 7% growth in 2027 against 4% for North America.
A rise in value-seeking
While the cost of living has been a concern in many nations, there is a polarity between travel budgets, with interest in both luxury travel and value-led travel identified as growing segments. Tourism Economics’ surveys reveal 56% of respondents are interested in mixing the two, saving on some elements of a trip while splurging on others. This suggests that tiered products might prove attractive, demonstrating clear value at entry level while offering premium upgrades.
Value-seeking has shown a particular rise. In 2026, one in six travellers chose their last international destination according to value for money, up from around one in eleven in 2025, while those prioritising a destination for luxury remained steady at 12%.
Increased trust in AI bookings
The acceleration of technology’s influence on travel bookings continues. More than a third of people (36%) say they would now trust AI to complete a travel booking, while 53% would consider using it for travel recommendations and 58% to search and compare prices. For destinations and suppliers, Tourism Economics concludes, being discoverable by AI assistants is an immediate priority.
Travel industry opportunities
When it comes to holiday content, connection with local communities and nature continue to be popular, though the need to disconnect and relax is the primary motivator for 37% of survey respondents, up from 31% in 2025. Among more active travellers, event travel, a key trend in 2025, continues to be an important driver.
The Travel Trends Survey reports almost two-thirds (64%) of travellers are interested in adventure trips, yet fewer than one in five (19%) typically undertake one. Tourism Economics suggests better packaging and the inclusion of more family-friendly products could help conversion.
The rise of off-peak travel continues, providing economic and sustainability opportunities for destinations. 22% of survey respondents now plan to travel at different times of year than before, with value-seeking outpacing cooler weather and crowd avoidance as the motivation.
If this year’s disruption eases, global international arrivals are expected to grow 8% in 2027, with long-haul travel rebounding by 11%. The upwards trend is set to continue, with rises of around 6% a year, reaching 2.2bn arrivals by 2032, meaning the industry will grow faster than the wider economy. The report attributes this to the rise of developing outbound markets such as India and China and the continued priority consumers place on travel.
Chris Carter-Chapman, WTM London’s Event Director, commented: “The annual WTM Global Travel Report delivers authoritative data and analysis on the trends shaping global travel, covering more than 185 countries and key tourism flows worldwide.
“The key findings of the 2026 report are echoed in the conference theme of this year’s show: ‘Resilience, Rebound & Reinvention: the next era of global travel’. This will be reflected in debates across all our stages, equipping professionals with the insights they need to navigate emerging challenges.”
Dave Goodger, Managing Director EMEA for Tourism Economics, said: “Travellers are more active in 2026 than ever before. Leisure travel remains a key priority in consumer budgets, even as travellers are adapting how and where they visit, for example by spending selectively on the experiences that matter most to them or staying closer to home.
“In the face of ongoing disruption, including conflict in the Middle East and rising cost-of-living pressures, the industry is on course for another record year in 2026.”
