A new report from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) predicts that Kampala will be among Africa’s top 20 most urbanized cities by 2035.
This rapid urban growth highlights the city’s expanding infrastructure, economic opportunities, and population increase, positioning it as a key player in the continent’s urbanization trends.
According to monitor.co.ug, the report, authored by EIU, the research and analysis division of The Economist Group under the African Cities 2035 Rapid Urbanisation and Economic Expansion title, indicates that Kampala, as a middleweight city will grow at a faster pace, supported by infrastructure development and urbanisation, among others.
The report reviews 100 African cities clustered under established urban heavyweights and megacities, which include Cairo, Lagos, and Johannesburg, among others – projected to be at the head of the Africa100 city economies by 2035 – and middleweight cities such as Kampala, Kinshasa, Dar es Salaam, Addis Ababa, Abidjan, Dakar, and Kumasi – that will experience faster growth in the 11 years to 2035.
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Kampala, which as of 2023 was at position 27th, is expected to leapfrog eight cities, including Kano (Nigeria), Algiers (Algeria), Dakar Region (Senegal), Ibadan (Nigeria), Rabat (Morocco), Yaoundé (Cameroon) and Port Harcourt (Nigeria), to 18th position.
The report also projects that Kampala’s gross domestic product will expand to at least $50b at a compound growth rate of above 9.6 percent by 2035, but will be lower than Dar es Salaam’s $80b (compound growth rate of 9 percent) and Nairobi’s $70b (compound growth rate of 5.6 percent).
Dar es Salaam, Kinshasa, and Nairobi, which complete the list of four large cities in East Africa, are ranked and will still rank above Kampala in position eighth, 11th, and 13th, respectively.
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However, whereas Dar es Salaam and Kinshasa are projected to grow from the current positions of 15th and 14th, respectively, Nairobi will be leapfrogged by five cities to drop from eighth as of 2023.
The report also indicates that Uganda and Kenyan cities will, by 2035, form the Great Lakes megalopolis, joining the likes of Cairo and Alexandria in Egypt, the southern cluster in Gauteng in South Africa, and two separate clusters in Morocco and Algeria.
In West Africa, the metropolis cluster will stretch from Abidjan in Côte d’Ivoire to Lagos, Nigeria, which could become one of the world’s largest urban corridors by 2035.
A megalopolis is a group of metropolitan areas connected by common and shared systems.
Africa is projected to experience rapid urbanisation that will create more dynamic and wealthier consumer markets, better-connected and sophisticated commercial and distribution hubs, and larger bases for industrial production and trade operations.
The report also projects African cities to record the fastest rates of population growth, enhanced by geographical and demographical expansion that will be characterised by more skilled and better-educated residents, higher productivity levels and wage rates, higher-value business activities, and penetration of financial services, among others.
However, the report notes that authorities must find ways to mitigate associated urban challenges such as overcrowding, informal settlements, high unemployment, poor public services, stretched utility services, and exposure to climate change.
Mitigating measures
Asked how Kampala plans to mitigate some of the challenges highlighted in the report, Mr Vincent Byendaimira, the Kampala Capital City director for planning, said government was, finalising the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area Physical Development Plan, covering the districts of Wakiso, Mukono and Mpigi, under which several projects such as an Outer Ring Road to improve Kampala’s connectivity, secondary centres (in Wakiso), railway connectivity and a Bus Rapid Transit system will be developed.
Top 20 citiies
Cairo,
Lagos,
Johannesburg,
Kampala,
Kinshasa,
Dar es Salaam,
Addis Ababa,
Nairobi
Abidjan,
Dakar,
Kumasi
Alexandria
Gauteng
Abidjan
Kano
Algiers
Dakar Region
Ibadan
Rabat
Yaoundé
Port Harcourt
