Africa’s commercial aircraft fleet is expected to more than double over the next two decades, reaching 1,625 aircraft by 2045 from 755 in 2025, as rising travel demand, urbanisation and stronger regional connectivity drive the continent’s aviation growth, Boeing has forecast.
According to reuters.com, the U.S. aircraft manufacturer said Africa’s airlines will require 1,165 new aircraft deliveries over the next 20 years to support the expansion, according to its latest annual Commercial Market Outlook.
Boeing’s forecast points to sustained growth in both domestic and international aviation, driven by Africa’s young and increasingly urban population, improving connectivity and deeper economic links within the continent and with major global markets.
Single-aisle aircraft are expected to account for the largest share of future deliveries, with 870 jets, or about three-quarters of the total forecast. These aircraft are widely used for domestic and regional routes and are expected to play a central role in meeting growing intra-African travel demand.
The manufacturer also projects demand for 240 wide-body aircraft, which are typically used for longer international routes, as well as 15 new freighter aircraft.
Africa passenger traffic set for strong growth
Boeing expects passenger traffic within Africa to increase by an average of 6.5% annually through 2045, reflecting rising demand for travel between the continent’s rapidly expanding cities and economies.
The strongest growth among Africa’s major international markets is expected on routes connecting the continent with the Middle East, with traffic forecast to expand by 7.1% annually.
Traffic between Africa and Europe is projected to grow at a more moderate but still significant rate of 3.4% per year.
Boeing Managing Director, Commercial Marketing, Africa and Middle East, Shahab Matin, said the continent’s aviation sector was entering a period of sustained expansion.
“Africa’s market was entering a period of sustained growth driven by improving connectivity, expanding intraregional travel and deeper economic ties,” Matin said.
African carriers, including Ethiopian Airlines, EgyptAir and Kenya Airways, are expected to benefit from the growing demand, while airlines operating regional networks will continue to rely heavily on smaller aircraft.
Africa’s dominant carriers typically use aircraft manufactured by Embraer, ATR and De Havilland for regional operations. Boeing, however, said it could also provide suitable aircraft for carriers seeking to expand their fleets.
Cargo fleet to expand significantly
The growth is not expected to be limited to passenger aviation.
Boeing forecasts that Africa’s commercial freighter fleet will increase from 60 aircraft to 150 by 2045, supported by expanding logistics networks, e-commerce and the growth of African exports.
The projected increase highlights the growing importance of air cargo to the continent’s trade and supply chains, particularly as online commerce and cross-border business continue to expand.
Aviation services market to reach $140 billion
Boeing also estimates that Africa’s aviation services market will generate approximately $140 billion between 2026 and 2045.
The market includes maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO), aircraft modifications and digital aviation services.
The expansion of the aircraft fleet is also expected to create significant demand for skilled aviation professionals. Boeing estimates that Africa will need 75,000 additional aviation workers over the period, including 22,000 pilots, 25,000 technicians and 28,000 cabin crew.
The projected workforce requirement underscores the need for greater investment in aviation training, technical education and human-capital development as African airlines expand their operations.
Long-term outlook, not an order forecast
Boeing stressed that its Commercial Market Outlook represents a long-term assessment of market demand rather than a projection of confirmed aircraft orders.
Nevertheless, the forecast signals significant opportunities for aircraft manufacturers, airlines, airports, maintenance providers, training institutions and other aviation businesses across Africa.
With passenger and cargo traffic expected to grow steadily, the continent’s aviation sector is likely to require not only more aircraft but also expanded airport infrastructure, maintenance capacity, skilled personnel and stronger regional connectivity to accommodate the projected growth through 2045.
