Geopolitical tensions in the region are forcing airlines to review routes their aircraft take – hiking costs and creating an ever-changing map of regional airspace.
Compare two maps from real-time air tracker service Flightradar24 from 2016 and 2018, and it is easy to see how much Middle East flight paths have changed in recent years.
It is also lamentably easy to see how little the region’s geopolitical tensions have improved over that time, bringing constant disruption to airline operations.
In the first map, the impact of civil wars in Syria and Iraq is clearly visible. Both countries were effectively “no-fly zones” – Syria remains so – and many aircraft crossing the Middle East were, and still are, funnelled over Iran.
Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, where Russia’s Metrojet Flight 9268 crashed in October 2015, killing all 224 on board, was also viewed as a no-fly zone due to the risk of terrorist attacks and kidnapping. Airlines are still required to maintain altitudes above 26,000 feet over a small portion of the peninsula.
Today, most aircraft continue to avoid the traditional direct route to and from the Arabian Gulf across Syrian and Iraqi airspace but some, including Dubai-based carrier Emirates Airline, have resumed flights over Iraq since victory was declared over ISIL militants in December.
The UAE’s congested airspace as the country grows as an aviation hub is visible in the second map. The Government last month completed the biggest airspace restructuring in an attempt to reduce delays and streamline the huge volume of air traffic passing through its territory.
Last year, GCC airspace was disrupted more suddenly with the ongoing boycott of Qatar by the UAE and Saudi Arabia-led coalition of allies that has cut off ties with the nation over alleged terrorism funding.
In June, the UAE’s General Civil Aviation Authority closed allied airspace to “all air traffic to and from Doha until further notice”. The UAE this month denied Qatar’s accusation made to the United Nations in December that its fighter aircraft violated Qatari airspace, illustrating the delicate situation.
Israeli airspace is restricted to Arab carriers for political reasons apart from airlines from Egypt and Jordan, which have diplomatic ties with Israel. In September, following the independence referendum by the Kurdish Regional Government, Iraq’s government cancelled international flights to the northern Kurdistan region.
Yemen remains a restricted territory as civil war rages, and overall, swathes of the conflict-ridden Middle East are subject to flight path alterations imposed by governments or airlines themselves.
“If we look at geopolitical developments and region-wide airspace restrictions since 2014 we have had a few changes,” says Diogenis Papiomytis, director of the aerospace and defence practice at consultancy Frost & Sullivan.
“In 2015, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan [over certain heights], Sudan and South Sudan could not be overflown by regional airlines. Since then, Yemen has joined the list.
“In addition, caution is given to airlines flying over specific parts of Egypt and Iran. The situation with Qatar is different, but important as it adds up to the complexity.
“Overall, the impact on Middle East carriers is massive, with the operating environment deteriorating over the past three years. The addition of more territories in the medium and high-threat categories means severe network planning restrictions and added costs.”
Airspace restrictions are generally dictated by national aviation authorities. It is then the responsibility of airlines’ aviation security departments to assess route and overflight risk by liaising with the civil aviation authorities, International Air Transport Association, the UN’s International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) and other bodies, meaning restrictions vary depending on the country and carrier.
“Commercial airspace routings are well established but change to reflect any disruptive activity or potential threats,” says John Grant, a partner at Midas Consulting and former vice president of air schedule data provider OAG.
“The Qatari ban is probably the biggest change in the region at present, forcing Qatar Airways to increase their sector times and route aircraft heading towards Africa initially in a south-easterly direction to avoid Saudi and UAE airspace.
“At a higher level, airlines adjust their flight routings each day to take advantage of trade winds and other factors and use the most cost-effective and safest routings for each flight.”
Source: thenationalae.
