Africa: Despite increasing population why did the Nigerian Aviation fleet size decrease from 90 planes to 40 in 10 years

The crisis in the Nigerian aviation sector has taken a big toll on the smooth operations of local airlines in the country, in terms of aircraft acquisitions. In this piece, ANTHONY AWUNOR writes that lean aircraft size in the fleet of local carriers is becoming a source of worry for stakeholders in the industry.

Around year 2005, domestic airlines’ fleet size in the country were as many as 90 aircrafts. Then, Nigeria’s population was smaller than what it is today. Ironically, this aircraft number has continued to dwindle over time, while the human population has continued to grow astronomically. During those periods, there were minimal flight cancellations and delays at airports across the country. And airlines like Bellview, Air Nigeria and Arik Air were also flying into international routes like New York (USA), Mumbai (India), Dubai (UAE), Johannesburg (South Africa) and London (United Kingdom), raking in foreign exchange earnings for the country and creating numerous employment opportunities for Nigerian pilots, engineers, cabin crew, catering firms, travel agents, among others.

For example, Dana Airline was flying six aircrafts; IRS had five aircrafts; Chanchangi had two aircrafts; Associated Airline had four aircrafts and ADC Airlines had three aircrafts. Sosoliso Airlines was maintaining six aircrafts; EAS Airline had 11 Aircrafts; Aero Contractors 12 aircrafts and Belview Airlines was having as many as 13 aircrafts while Arik Air had 27 aircrafts then, just to mention a few. Between 2012 and 2014, Nigeria had three new entrants which include Medview Airlines, Air Peace and Azman Air with seven, 20 and five aircrafts respectively. Down the line, the system started changing and the domestic airlines are left with fewer aircrafts while a lot more went under. Whenever, they go under, what follows is the disappearance of their fleet from the over 5,193 commercial airplanes across the globe.

Lamenting the situation, former President of National Association of Aircrafts Pilots and Engineers (NAAPE), Engr. Isaac Balami confirmed to LEADERSHIP that local carriers have actually lost some of its fleet over the years. Balami who said that Air Peace and Medview are the only airlines that are trying to bridge that gap added that they can’t do the magic alone since all of them are still struggling to survive. Wondering why airlines in the country have continued to witness difficulties almost after every 10 years, the aircrafts engineer advised that there is need for government to do more to assist and support the airlines more. The engineer equally blamed the airlines for their woes, pointing out that, local carriers most time use the wrong aircrafts for certain routes.

Higher Cost of Maintenance
He said “Another major issue is the type of equipment that we use in the industry. The Boeing 737 to be doing 35 minutes, 45 minutes, one hour flight is not sustainable. The point is what the load factor is, again, these aircrafts are not designed for 30 minutes or one hour flights. If you take up from Abuja and you land in Benin, it is 40 minutes flight. That is one leg. You come back each check of the engine overhaul of the aircraft is a function of a circle of an hour of flight and then calendar months, whichever comes first. “So, by the time you have too much checks on these aircraft, the cost for maintenance comes in earlier and you are selling tickets in naira to go and raise dollars to overhaul the engines; you see there are so many challenges.

If you go to US today and if you land in Atlanta and you want to go to any country, they will fly you with Dash 8; they use Boeing 727 only when the flight is more than two, three hours but in our own case, aircraft meant for regional flights is what we are using for domestic operations; it is not sustainable”, he said. “By the time you fly into Abuja, Lagos or Port Harcourt with Dash 8 aircraft; in fact, the next time, Nigerian passengers would not like to buy your ticket again. They will go and look for where they have bigger aircrafts. And those aircrafts are very safe; people complain about the stability of the small aircrafts but if you look at the incidents and accidents across the globe, it is safer and more economical as it is easier to maintain.

It is cheaper to fuel. These are the issues”, Balami added. Balami warned that until Nigeria gets to a point where, as a country it comes to reality in terms of what is obtainable anywhere in the world, they will keep struggling. He however, assured that, so far, so good, most of the airlines are trying but still need more of government support, even though government has been doing a lot to help them but more is still needed. Explaining further, he said “Look at Arik; Arik used to have over 30 aircrafts, Aero used to have the Dash 8 and other private jets up to 10, and about 17 aircrafts including helicopters, now they are down to about three or four. IRS, Chanchangi Airlines are gone and FirstNation is just struggling with one or two aircraft. If you look at it, it is obvious but Air Peace has tried to bridge the cap but they still can’t do it all. It is not easy and Medview is struggling too.

Harsh Operating Environment He also noted that Nigeria needs to get to a point where they must ask ourselves this question. Why is it that the average life span of an airlines in Nigeria is about 10 years? Looking at the variables, the engineer averred that even with a fleet of 40 aircraft, an airline may not do well in Nigeria because of the harsh operating environment they find themselves. Balami said “whether you like it or not, whether the biggest airline have 40 fleet or more, it is a matter of time until we look at the environment and the issue of Maintain, Repair and Overhaul (MRO); training, flight simulators, world class catering that would give them good food at a much subsidised rate. Until we look at the issue of taxation and what have you and even absence of waivers.

“You can come in with N2 billion to N3 billion and you are doing well initially and you have financiers; but no matter who is funding you or the source of your income and even if you take loans of billions of dollars, it will get to a point where your overhead cost becomes so high by the time you go for C checks, D check and others, you find out that you can’t cope again”, Balami pointed out. Corroborating Engr. Balami, chief executive officer, Sabre Travel Network, West Africa, Mr. Gbenga Olowo confirmed that the Nigerian environment is very hostile for business and that civil servants in the Aviation Ministry (now Ministry of Transport) are supposed to see to the advancement of the sector, ensuring that airlines succeed. Olowo who is also the President of Aviation Safety Round Table Initiative (ASRTI) advised that these civil servants are supposed to measure the progress of airlines from year to year.

“They should tell us the number of aircraft in the last one year, the number of airlines that have increased their fleet over the years, the growth rate amongst others. So, if there is no growth, there can be no development”, Olowo said. For the national carrier Nigeria is planning, he however, recommended that a sizeable aircraft fleet that will guarantee undisrupted schedule and maintenance of airport slot is required by Nigeria, adding that minimum fleet of 20 at a growth rate of five per annum in the first five years are needed. Olowo who pointed out that South African Airways parades a fleet size of 52 aircraft’s warned that any anyline with less than 20 aircraft faces failure should it commence international operations.

Lower fleet, Higher Passenger Demands To the aviation expert, the crisis in the Nigerian aviation sector had therefore, adversely affected the local airlines and that the total aircrafts in the fleet of local carriers was insufficient to cater for the needs of the flying public. As at last year, Olowo said the combined aircraft fleet of Nigeria’s domestic airlines stood at 41, a figure he described as abysmal considering the population of about 180 million and the need to meet the increasing demand for domestic and international air transport by Nigerians while also growing revenues from the sector to the national coffers. Reports have however, shown that aviation currently contributes about 0.4 per cent to the Nigerian gross domestic product (GDP) and analysts have also pointed out that efforts to grow that figure to 13 per cent would remain a mirage as Nigeria lacks the vibrant domestic airlines with the right fleet to raise the sector’s contributions to the economy.

Airlines Fleet Across the Globe

Globally, the strength of any aviation industry and its contribution to the economy is a direct product of the number of aircraft doing business in the airports of those countries. For instance, American Airlines is operating about 1,494 planes, a figure that puts the airline nearly 25 per cent ahead of their nearest competitor. The airline’s main hub, Dallas-Fort Worth, is a pre-merger monopoly for American, with the original airline operating 85 per cent of total passenger traffic at the airport.

Another regional carrier is that of Delta Airlines which has about 1, 280 planes. Presently, Delta has expanded and now operates the second-largest fleet on earth, with 5,000 daily flights based out of Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson Airport–the busiest in the country. Delta’s largest fleet expansion followed the bankruptcy of Pan-Am Airlines in 1991, when Delta took over a selection of its aircraft assets and flight routes. Delta is closely followed by A United Airlines which operates one of the largest fleets in the world, befitting its anchor position in the Star Alliance.

With hundreds of destinations, United actually offers 10 different hubs–critical to its success, this dense network captures the majority of Americans in its various hubs, enabling a wide array of popular destinations in major cities including Chicago, Los Angeles, Washington, Houston, Newark, Denver, San Francisco, Cleveland, and Tokyo. Other airlines among the leading 10 in terms of fleet size include: Southwest, 683 planes; FedEx Express, 634 planes; China Southern, 423 planes; Lufthansa, 401 planes; Air France, 381 planes; Air Canada, 354 planes and China Eastern Airlines, 349 planes in that order.

Open Skies To the Rescue Meanwhile, Minister of State for Aviation, Senator Hadi Sirika had recently blamed the airlines for their woes, advising them to work harder so that they can compete favourably, especially as it concerns the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) which Nigeria recently signed. Sirika criticised the local operators who have spoken against the open skies initiative, saying they have refused to grow even as he said most of them were owing aviation agencies. He noted that the need to take full advantage of the SAATM informed the decision of the federal government to establish a private sector-driven national carrier.

He said “At the time Nigeria was pushing for this SAATM, you and I know we had Nigeria Airways and we thought we would take advantage of it. Now we don’t and our airlines for one reason or another have not grown to that capacity and this is why the government felt that we should set in motion to create a robust carrier that would take advantage of this SAATM for the benefit of the Nigerian people”. He said rather than whining, Nigerian airlines should work on their business model and diversify to take advantage of the open skies initiative. “If I will advise them (operators), they should get their acts together to focus to reorganise, to re-engineer and take advantage and be futuristic and looking at the bigger future and organize themselves and take advantage of the SAATM rather than to sit there and the train is moving and begin to whine”, the minister said.

Source: leadership.ng