The International Air Transport Association (IATA) Annual General Meeting (AGM) press conference has spotlighted Africa’s aviation sector as a significant growth frontier, projecting passenger traffic to more than double to 345 million by 2043.
According to Airspace Africa, Africa’s aviation sector is at a crossroads, poised for significant growth yet grappling with persistent challenges that hinder its full potential. However, high costs, restrictive policies, and infrastructure gaps continue to hold back progress.
A Mixed Performance in 2025
Africa’s aviation market has shown resilience in passenger demand, with a year-to-date increase of 9% from January to April 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, outpacing the global average. This growth underscores the continent’s potential as a vibrant aviation hub, driven by increasing economic activity and a growing middle class. However, the cargo sector paints a less optimistic picture, with demand down 5.5% year-to-date, lagging behind global trends. This decline highlights structural challenges, including limited cargo infrastructure and high operational costs, that continue to impede Africa’s competitiveness in global trade.
Safety: Progress Amid Challenges
Safety remains a cornerstone of aviation, and Africa has made notable strides. The continent recorded a fatality risk rate of zero for the second consecutive year in 2024, a testament to ongoing efforts through initiatives like IATA’s Collaborative Aviation Safety Improvement Program (CASIP). However, the region reported 10 accidents in 2024, primarily runway excursions and landing gear issues, with 40% involving turboprop aircraft. While the global accident rate rose slightly to 1.13 per million sectors in 2024 from 1.09 in 2023, IATA members in Africa maintained a lower rate of 0.90, reflecting the benefits of global standards and data-sharing. Continued investment in training, technology, and infrastructure is essential to sustain and build on these gains.
A Bright Future for Passenger Growth
Africa’s aviation market is projected to more than double by 2043, reaching 345 million passengers annually, with an average growth rate of 3.7% over the next two decades. This forecast reflects the continent’s demographic and economic potential, with rising urbanization and trade integration driving demand. Countries like Ethiopia and Rwanda have already capitalized on this trend, leveraging aviation as a strategic economic enabler. Investments in Ethiopian Airlines and Addis Ababa Bole International Airport, as well as RwandAir and Kigali’s airport, have transformed these nations into regional hubs, boosting tourism, trade, and investment. Yet, unlocking this potential continent-wide requires addressing systemic barriers.
High Costs: A Persistent Barrier
Africa remains one of the most expensive regions for aviation operations. Fuel prices, which account for 40% of operating costs in Africa compared to 25% globally, are 17% higher than the world average. Taxes, fees, and air navigation charges are 12-15% and 10% higher, respectively, than in other regions. Maintenance, insurance, and capital costs are also 6-10% more expensive. These high costs erode airline profitability and inflate fares, pricing out potential travelers. Additionally, blocked funds—amounting to $919 million, or 70% of the global total—pose a significant financial strain, limiting airlines’ ability to reinvest in growth.
Structural and Policy Challenges
Beyond costs, Africa’s aviation sector faces structural and policy hurdles. Protectionist bilateral agreements restrict competition, limiting route availability and keeping fares high. Only 19% of intra-African routes offer direct flights, forcing passengers to endure longer, costlier journeys. Small fleet sizes and limited route networks further constrain African airlines’ ability to achieve economies of scale. The slow implementation of the African Union’s Yamoussoukro Decision (YD) and the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) exacerbates these issues, hindering market openness and connectivity.
Visa policies, however, show signs of progress. Four countries—Benin, The Gambia, Rwanda, and Seychelles—now offer visa-free entry to all African nationals, and 28% of intra-African travel scenarios are visa-free, up from 20% in 2016. The expansion of e-visa systems to 44% of African countries by 2024 further facilitates travel. These developments are critical for boosting tourism and trade but require broader adoption to maximize impact.
Four Priorities for Progress
To unlock Africa’s aviation potential, IATA outlined four priorities for governments:
1 Recognize Aviation’s Strategic Value: Countries like Ethiopia and Rwanda demonstrate how aviation can drive economic growth, regional integration, and social development when prioritized as a strategic asset.
2 Reduce Excessive Taxes and Charges: High taxes and fees, sometimes exceeding base airfares, stifle demand and limit accessibility. Governments must view aviation as a catalyst for growth, not a revenue source.
3 Invest in Efficient Infrastructure: Senegal’s Blaise Diagne International Airport, built through a cost-efficient public-private partnership, exemplifies scalable infrastructure that supports growth without burdening airlines or passengers.
4 Promote Openness and Cooperation: Aligning policies with the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and fully implementing SAATM can reduce barriers, enhance competition, and improve connectivity.
